Case Study

Alex Vieira Bought ULTA at $330, Added at $500 and Hit $700 Target After Buffett Quit

Historical case study — editorial context added 28 September 2026. Original claims and dates are preserved below. This is not a current signal or a representative performance result. This case study documents the ULTA cycle after the prior $570 to $330 crash call: buy at $330, add near $500 on November 21, 2025, and target completion at $700 on February 9, 2026.

Timestamped ULTA Cycle: $330 Buy, $500 Add, $700 Target Completion

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The progression is presented as a publish-first audit trail, contrasted with Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosed buy/sell activity during the same period.

Executive Summary

This case study documents a completed ULTA cycle published through timestamped signals before price confirmation.

Published February 10, 2026, documenting signals issued during November 2025 through February 9, 2026.

The documented sequence includes a prior crash call from $570 to $330, a buy at $330, and an add-to-position signal at approximately $500 on Nov 21, 2025 with a target at $700.

ULTA reached $700 on Feb 9, 2026, completing the published cycle after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a 96% liquidation of its ULTA position in Nov 2025.

Verified Timeline (Publicly Timestamped)

  • Prior signal in the documented cycle: ULTA crash projection from $570 to $330 (42% decline)
  • Apr 11, 2025: algorithm issues BUY at $330
  • Nov 2025: Berkshire Hathaway reports a 96% reduction of its ULTA position
  • Nov 21, 2025: algorithm issues add-to-position near $500 with a $700 target
  • Feb 9, 2026: ULTA reaches the $700 target
  • Feb 10, 2026: this case study publication date

Trade Sequence and Outcomes

ULTA: $570 to $330 downside phase

The model's prior cycle signal called for a decline from $570 to $330. The move completed as a 42% drawdown, establishing the lower-bound accumulation zone.

ULTA: $330 buy signal

At $330, the algorithm issued a buy signal to initiate long exposure after the downside phase completed.

ULTA: Nov 21, 2025 add near $500

On Nov 21, 2025, the model issued an add-to-position signal around $500 while maintaining a $700 objective for the cycle.

ULTA: $700 objective reached on Feb 9, 2026

Price reached $700 on Feb 9, 2026, completing the stated progression from accumulation to target resolution.

Audit Trail Standard / Verification

The audit standard is timestamp precedence: publication first, price second.

Signals are published before price action and then verified against subsequent market movement.

  • Signals were posted in real time before the corresponding price action.
  • Levels and dates are fixed and testable against historical chart data.
  • No hindsight revisions, selective edits, or retroactive signal reconstruction.

Full insight record: View full insight documentation

Methodology

The system applies mathematical convergence analysis to identify phase transitions between distribution and accumulation, then maps projected price paths to rule-based entries and add levels. Signal generation is model-driven rather than discretionary.

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Disclaimer

This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only.

Trading signals shown represent historical, documented outcomes and are not guarantees of future performance.

All trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Conduct independent research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.